Abhatoo - Centre Nationale de Documentation

Climate change presents new challenges for agriculture. When it comes to planning adaptation measures, estimating the crop water requirement plays a key role. In the water cycle, evapotranspiration accounts for around two-thirds of the volume of exchanges, and its estimation is important for irrigation scheduling, water resources planning and management. The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) defines the potential evaporation of a standard vegetation cover with plenty of water. It is calculated using several models, including that of Jensen and Haise, used in this study to predict the evolution of the ET0 by 2050 in the province of Ifrane (NW Morocco). To do this, the current and future monthly mean air temperature from the Miroc-ESM model and according to two climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were downloaded from Worlclim database. Personalized climatic layers of the study area are generated using the two software DIVA-GIS and ArcGIS. The results show that the ET0 will increase in the future for all months and more markedly for pessimistic scenario RCP8.5, it will vary between 9 mm in January and December and 135 mm in July for the RCP8.5 scenario and between 8 mm in January and 131 mm in July for RCP4.5 scenario, against 4 mm in January and 118 mm in July currently. This highlights the need for adaptation of agriculture in the study area by mastering the opportunities and risks of climate change concerning water resources.