Abhatoo - Centre Nationale de Documentation

This page begins with an introductory assessment of the Kingdom of Morocco’s context, looking at current population distribution, social structure, climate and topography. Morocco is the only African country with Atlantic and Mediterranean coastlines and the only one with a land border with a member state of the European Union, Spain. It claims the disputed Western Sahara territory as part of its territory.
The Current Path forecast for Morocco presents its likely development trajectory to 2043. It is based on current geopolitical trends and assumes that no major shocks would occur in a ‘business as usual’ future.
On the Current Path, Morocco’s population will increase from 36.5 million in 2019 to 43.3 million in 2043. With a median age of 28.4 years in 2019, Morocco is in a favourable window of demographic opportunity, contributing to steady economic growth.
Between 1990 and 2019, Morocco’s GDP increased almost threefold from US$48.64 billion to US$133.4 billion, at which point it was the fifth largest economy in Africa. By 2043, the country’s GDP will have expanded to US$253.4 billion. The informal sector will account for 18% of GDP in 2043, down from 30% in 2019.
The World Bank classifies Morocco as a lower-middle-income country with a GDP per capita of US$8 368. On the Current Path, its GDP per capita will increase to US$10 718 in 2043.
In 2019, 211 000 people lived below the poverty line of US$1.90 and 1.9 million below US$3.20 per day, equivalent to 0.6% and 5.1% of the population. By 2043, the share of people living below the US$3.20 poverty line will decline to 1.3% (582 000) compared to 5.1% (1.9 million) in 2019.
The national development plan published in 2021 is known as the New Development Model.
The third section compares progress on the Current Path with eight sectoral scenarios. The eight sectoral scenarios are Demographics and Health; Agriculture; Education; Manufacturing; the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA); Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging; Financial Flows; and Governance. We benchmark each scenario to present an ambitious but reasonable aspiration in that sector.
Morocco has a more mature population structure than most African countries and is already benefiting from the advantage of a large working-age population relative to dependents. The Demographics and Health scenario will ensure Morocco benefits from an even larger demographic dividend and better health than the Current Path. In this scenario, infant mortality rates in Morocco will reduce to 8.1 deaths per 1 000 live births by 2043 compared to 9.2 deaths in the Current Path.
The Agriculture scenario, will significantly improve Morocco’s food security. By 2043, exports will exceed imports by 1.3% of demand. On the Current Path, Morroco would have imported 9.6% of its agriculture demand by 2043. Water and land ownership patterns are two large constraints on improved agricultural production.
Morocco’s educational attainment for the 15 to 24 age group was nine years in 2019, increasing to 9.7 years in 2043 on the Current Path and 9.9 years in the Education scenario. In the scenario, Morocco improves its mean years of education in the 15 to 24 age group to surpass neighbouring Algeria by 2043.
The Manufacturing scenario increases the size of Morocco’s economy by 6.8% in 2043 (to US$270.6 billion instead of US$253.4 billion). The service sector will remain the largest contributor to Morocco’s GDP by 2043.
Still, instead of contributing 55% of GDP on the Current Path, its share will decline to 50.5%. The manufacturing sector will increase its contribution to GDP to 30.3% (US$82 180.43 billion) instead of 24.3% (US$61.45 billion) by 2043.
Morocco mainly trades with Europe and has large opportunities in Africa. In the AfCFTA scenario, Morocco’s exports will increase by 70% in value by 2043 (US$163.1 billion instead of US$95.26 billion) and imports by 57% (US$197 billion instead of US$125.8 billion). Morocco will also improve its trade openness ranking.
Given that Moroccans already enjoy universal access to electricity with above-average ICT, the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario has a marginal impact but increases paved roads by 11.6%.
In the Financial Flows scenario, 2043 foreign direct investment inflows will account for 4.4% of GDP compared to 3.1% in the Current Path, boosting government revenues to US$87.1 billion instead of US$84.4 billion.
Morocco already does better than its peers on security (10% better in 2019 and 8% better by 2043) and capacity (60% better in 2019 and 40% better in 2043) but worse in inclusion (-34% in 2019 and -16% in 2043), the three dimensions used to compare progress. In the Governance scenario, security in Morocco will be 11% better by 2043, capacity will be 50% higher and Morocco will only be 9% less inclusive than its peers. Morocco is generally better governed than most other lower-middle-income countries in Africa and the positive situation improves further in the Governance scenario.
The subsequent section compares the impact of each of the eight sectoral scenarios with one another and with a Combined Agenda 2063 scenario (the sum effect of all eight scenarios).
Morocco’s GDP per capita was US$8 368 in 2019, and the Current Path for 2043 is US$10 718. Among the sectoral interventions, the AfCFTA scenario will have the greatest positive impact on the GDP per capita, taking it to US$11 859, followed by the Governance and Manufacturing scenarios.
The Manufacturing scenario has the largest impact on extreme poverty, followed by the Agriculture scenario.
In the Combined scenario, Morocco’s economy will be more than 51% larger than the Current Path for that year.
In 2019, Morocco’s economy was the 5th largest in Africa. In the Combined scenario, it would be Africa’s 6th largest economy by 2043 instead of the 11th largest in the Current Path.
In 2019, Morocco emitted 18 million tons of carbon from fossil fuels making it the fifth largest emitter in Africa.
On the Current Path, emissions will increase to 30 million tons of carbon by 2043. Emissions in the Combined scenario is 38 million tons of carbon (i.e. a 24% increase above the 2043 Current Path) and the 6th largest in Africa.
We end this page with a summarising conclusion offering key recommendations for decision-making. Morocco's strategic investments in infrastructure, education and governance reforms present substantial opportunities for sustainable growth and development, positioning it for long-term stability and success by 2043.