Année de Publication :
2013
Type : Etude
Thème : Prospective
Couverture : Maroc
More than two years after the Arab Spring began, economic activity remains weighed down by elevated political tensions and continued civil strife in the region. Regional growth accelerated to 3.5 percent in 2012 from minus 2.2 percent in 2011 reflecting mainly a rebound in Libya’s crude oil production to pre-war levels that doubled real GDP and a weak growth recovery in Egypt (to 2.2 percent in FY2012 from 1.8 percent in FY2011). Iran, the region’s largest economy, slipped into recession, with GDP falling by an estimated 1.9 percent due to international sanctions and lower oil output while Algeria’s growth remained subdued at 2.5 percent, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. Domestic demand and exports in Syria collapsed last year as the civil war intensified, with spillovers affecting activity in Jordan and Lebanon. Drought in Morocco reduced growth to 2.7 percent from 5.0 percent in 2011.