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                Andkhuiy
                    Preidun
        
                
                    
        
																			Collectivite Auteur : 
                Erasmus University Rotterdam. Erasmus School of Economics
        
                
        
																		Date de publication : 07/07/2019
																	Type :     Thèse / Mémoire
													Thème :     Finances
													Couverture :                    Maroc
          
								
			
 Télécharger le document :
 Télécharger le document :In this paper we aim to determine and select crucial factors and variables to predict future inflation rates of Morocco using principal component analysis and the elastic net method of Zou and Hastie (2005). We make use of a large data set on inflation rates of several African countries. We therefore construct several "hybrid" forecasting models using static and dynamic regressor parameters to conduct an out of sample forecasting experiment. The results of our empirical study reveal that all the factor-based forecasting methods, whether it has static or dynamic parameters, outperform non factor-based methods including a benchmark autoregressive model for different windowing methods. The inclusion of time varying parameter drastically improves the forecasting performance of all our forecast models.
