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- An Evaluation of the Risks Surrounding the 2006-2012 NIME Economic Outlook: Illustrative Stochastic Simulations
An Evaluation of the Risks Surrounding the 2006-2012 NIME Economic Outlook: Illustrative Stochastic Simulations
Auteur :
Meyermans
E.,
Van Brusselen
P.
Année de Publication :
2006
Type : Article
Thème : Economie appliquée
Couverture :
Belgique
URL Article :
http://www.plan.be/admin/uploaded/200605221204160.wp0602en.pdfURL Source :
http://www.plan.be 
Télécharger le document :
(644,56 kB) An Evaluation of the Risks Surrounding the 2006-2012 NIME Economic Outlook.pdfRésumé/Sommaire :
In this Working Paper, we apply stochastic simulation to the latest NIME EconomicOutlook for the world economy. We present confidence intervals around the baseline projectionfor the euro area, the United States and Japan; we also show estimates of the probabilities of occurrenceof specific events. These events include a decline in GDP growth rates in 2006, sustainedhigh growth rates as of 2010 in the euro area, contained inflation over the medium term, and successfulfiscal consolidation by 2012. The results in this Working Paper are of an illustrativenature and do not constitute an update of the January 2006 NIME Economic Outlook.
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