Collectivite Auteur :
Fonds monétaire international
Année de Publication :
2008
Type : Article
Thème : Economie appliquée
Table des matières: Assumptions and Conventions Preface Foreword Executive Summary Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies
Global Economy under Stress
Financial System in Crisis
Deepening Housing Corrections
Overstretched Commodity Markets
Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Too Loose?
Prospects for a Turnaround
Policy Challenges for the Global Economy
Appendix 1.1. Assessing and Communicating Risks to the Global Outlook
References
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
United States and Canada: Prognosis for the Downturn
Western Europe: Struggling with Multiple Shocks
Advanced Asia: Responding to External Shocks
Emerging Asia: Balancing Risks to Growth and Price Stability
Latin America and the Caribbean: Navigating a More Perilous Environment
Emerging Europe: Prospects for a Soft Landing
Commonwealth of Independent States: Managing the Commodity Price Boom
Sub-Saharan Africa: A Test of Policy Frameworks
Middle East: Overheating Still a Concern
References
Chapter 3. Is Inflation Back? Commodity Prices and Inflation
Surging Commodity Prices: Origins and Prospects
Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation
Monetary Policy Responses to Commodity Price Shocks
Summary and Conclusions
Appendix 3.1. Recent Commodity Market Developments
Appendix 3.2. Accounting for Food Price Increases, 2006–08
Appendix 3.3 Estimating Inflationary Effects of Commodity Price Shocks
References
Chapter 4. Financial Stress and Economic Downturns
Identifying Episodes of Financial Stress
Financial Stress, Economic Slowdown, and Recession
Has Financial Innovation Affected the Interplay between Financial Stress and Economic Cycles
The Current Financial Crisis in Historical Context
Conclusions
Appendix 4.1. Data and Methodology
References
Chapter 5. Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool
Understanding the Fiscal Policy Debate
How Has Discretionary Fiscal Policy Typically Responded?
Are Fiscal Policy Reactions Different in Emerging and Advanced Economies?
The Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy
A Simulation-Based Perspective on Fiscal Stimulus
Conclusions and Policy Considerations
Appendix 5.1. Data and Empirical Methods
References
Chapter 6. Divergence of Current Account Balances across Emerging Economies
Recent Current Account Patterns in Emerging Economies
What Factors Have Contributed to Recent Current Account Patterns
Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances
Conclusions and Policy Implications
Appendix 6.1. Variable Definitions and Data Source
Appendix 6.2. Econometric Approach
References