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Weights of evidence method for landslide susceptibility mapping in Tangier, Morocco

Auteur : Bousta Mahfoud, Ait Brahim Lahsen
Année de Publication : 2017
Type : Article
Thème : Information écologique
Couverture : Maroc

Résumé/Sommaire :

Tangier region is known by a high density of mass movements which cause several human and economic losses. The goal of this paper is to assess the landslide susceptibility of Tangier using the Weight of Evidence method (WofE). The method is founded on the principle that an event (landslide) is more likely to occur based on the relationship between the presence or absence of a predictive variable (predisposing factors) and the occurrence of this event. The inventory, description and analysis of mass movements were prepared. Then the main factors governing their occurrence (lithology, fault, slope, elevation, exposure, drainage and land use) were mapped before applying WofE. Finally, the ROC curves were established and the areas under curves (AUC) were calculated to evaluate the degree of fit of the model and to choose the best landslide susceptibility zonation. The prediction accuracy was found to be 70%. Obtained susceptibility map shows that 60% of inventoried landslides are in the high to very high susceptibility zones, which is very satisfactory for the validation of the adopted model and the obtained results. These zones are mainly located in the N-E and E part of the Tangier region in the soft and fragile facies of the marls and clays of the Tangier unit, where landuse is characterized by dominance of arable and agricultural land (lack of forest cover). From a purely spatial point of view, the localization of these two classes of susceptibility is completely corresponding to the ground truth data, that is to say that all the environmental and anthropogenic conditions are in place for making this area prone to landslide hazards. The obtained map is a decision-making tool for presenting, comparing and discussing development and urban scenarios in Tangier. These results fall within the context of sustainable development and will help to mitigate the socio-economic impacts usually observed when landslides are triggered.

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