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Analysis of observed climate trends and high resolution scenarios for the 21st century in Morocco

Auteur : Ait Brahim Yassine, El Mehdi Saidi Mohamed, Kouraiss Khaoula ...[et al.]
Année de Publication : 2017
Type : Article
Thème : Surveillance
Couverture : Maroc

Résumé/Sommaire :

In spite of its geographical situation on the Atlantic and Mediterranean coast, Morocco is one of the most arid areas of the world; it experiences highly variable rainfall and recurrent droughts. Predictions of climate change consequences on several socio-economical fields in Morocco are very alarming. In fact, climate trends observed in Marrakech and Essaouira through the study of meteorological data since 1961, could identify a clear trend towards higher temperatures and lower rainfall. Moreover, the review of recent climatic conditions and future climate change projections could confirm the same result over all the Moroccan territory. A geographic information system (GIS) is used to spatialize these changes in the country. Comparing annual temperatures and precipitations over two decades (1971-1980 and 1998-2007) revealed a global warming in 29 meteorological stations, especially on two broad areas North and South of Morocco. In these areas, the increase of temperatures reached 4°C and the decrease in annual rainfall reached up to 42 mm. Future climate projections were generated with the statistical technique of downscaling SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) and climate change scenarios from atmospheric general circulation models.
Simulations within the horizons 2040, 2070 and 2099 showed a situation of an overall increase in temperatures that reaches respectively 1°, 1.9° and 3.6°C; and a respective decrease in precipitation of 4.4%, 11.9% and 22.3%. Hence, more increasing climatic, hydrological and agricultural droughts are anticipated in Morocco by the late 21st century.

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