Abhatoo - Centre Nationale de Documentation

This study addresses the critical challenge of managing the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus under climate change, focusing on the Wadi Guir Watershed in southeastern Morocco. It analyzes the impacts of climate change on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus between 2019 and 2060, with a particular focus on the RCP 8.5 scenario. To create the climate change projections, a statistical downscaling model was used. The Pettitt test was applied to analyze trends in rainfall and temperature, while time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index were utilized to assess agricultural productivity. The results show a decrease in average annual rainfall for RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, while RCP 8.5 shows an increasing trend. All scenarios indicate a rise in average annual temperatures. As a result, discharge variation is expected to decline from 0.045 Mm3 in 2019 to 0.030 Mm3 in 2060, alongside increased evaporation. The NDVI analysis from 2000 to 2023 revealed an increase from 0.11 to 0.38, despite the decrease in rainfall, suggesting the overexploitation of groundwater resources. Additionally, the RCP 8.5 scenario predicts a negative impact on solar energy production. This research underscores the imperative for developing adaptation strategies and decision-making frameworks tailored to climate change.